ENC Weather Blog: Temperature Spread Today; Strong Storms Saturd - WNCT

ENC Weather Blog: Temperature Spread Today; Strong Storms Saturday

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The warming trend continues today across Eastern North Carolina but we'll have a few hurdles to get over for portions of the East.

TODAY: Wide range of temperatures will likely across the region through the afternoon hours. Models are depicting a coastal front to lift inland through the day; it'll take some time for it to erode away the colder air in the region, especially inland. Coastal areas will make a run deep into the 60s; central areas will run a little cooler, likely near 60. Northwest of the coastal front will be the best chance for showers this morning and will be the coolest areas on the board this afternoon. When we try to erode the cold air with a coastal front, it takes times for it to occur and the model have a hard time to depicting how far inland it will make it. We'll watch the trends through the day and adjust the forecast accordingly. Mostly cloudy skies for the most part but sunshine will peek through this morning.

TONIGHT: Clouds likely with scattered showers likely as well. Temperatures will rise or hold steady around 60 degrees overnight.

SATURDAY: Lots of things going on in the forecast for Saturday as a potent cold front pushes towards the region. The potential for strong to severe storms is turning more and more likely. The upper air dynamics will support a linear storm mode for Saturday. We'll be watching things very closely. This type of storm mode is more indicative to a damaging wind threat though isolated tornadoes will be not be able to be ruled out. But let's look at some of the parameters needed:

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SATURDAY)

        LIFT: You need a lifting mechanism, such as a frontal boundary or upper trough diving in to lift the air parcels into the atmosphere and get the storms             going....we'll have those in place.
       
        MOISTURE:
You need plenty of moisture to feed into the area of low pressure to condense, make the clouds and the rain when the lift occurs...we'll         have plenty of that in place. You'll feel the moisture increase through today. We could pick up 0.75 - 1.25" of rain before it's said and done.

        SHEAR: You need to have backing winds with altitude, meaning, winds out of the southerly route at the surface, but out of the westerly route further             into the atmosphere. We'll have enough turning of the winds, not only directionally, but also with speed (slower speeds near the surface, faster aloft)

        INSTABILITY: This will be the mitigating factor in whether severe storms can form. The model showing very little CAPE or the energy stored in the          atmosphere, though with successive model runs, that factor has been waning. It's something that we will be watching with new model runs later today to                 pinpoint things.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Sunshine will come back in full force for Sunday as the system lifts out of the region. Cooler air will filter in briefly, keeping temperatures in the 50s and 60s both day.

TUESDAY: This day continues to be the wild card; the European model continues to paint another strong low pressure system developing and riding up the Appalachian chain, spreading heavy rains and could spell for strong storms again. The Canadian model is showing a coastal low that would impact areas EAST of US 17; while the GFS is a little more reserved, thinking just a few passing showers. For now, going with model run-to-run consistency, expecting more rain for Tuesday with temperatures near 60.

NEW LATE WEEK TOSS UP: The GFS and the European model are showing another blast of colder, Canadian air moving southward toward our area by late next week. Both models show the cooler temperatures and even show some moisture associated with the trough as well, but they are running a day apart from each other. The Euro is showing a cold-core upper level low that could cause some interesting mischief...we'll watch how the models evolve this weekend.

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