With Atlantic Hurricane season literally right around the corner, the season starts in just a week and a day from today (5/24/2018), I thought we should look at the hurricane outlooks.
Many things go into making an outlook. What types of patterns are forecasters seeing? Are we in an El Nino or La Nina pattern? How warm are the ocean waters?
Colorado State University released their extended outlook on April 5th. That outlook stated that we could be seeing an above average hurricane season. Below is the outlook from Colorado State University:
EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2018:
Released April 5, 2018
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1981-2010 Climatological Median Forecast for 2018
Named Storms (12)* 14
Named Storm Days (60.1) 70
Hurricanes (6.5) 7
Hurricane Days (21.3) 30
Major Hurricanes (2.0) 3
Major Hurricane Days (3.9) 7
* Numbers in ( ) represent medians based on 1981-2010 data.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, better known as NOAA has also released their outlook for the 2018 Hurricane Season. Forecasters predicted that there is a 35% chance of an above-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below normal season.
Hurricane season officially begins on June 1st and extends until November 30th. The peak of hurricane season is mid-August to late October.
You can track the tropics with the First Alert Weather team all season right here on WNCT.com