3 states that could decide the 2020 US presidential election

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A voter deposits his advance ballot in a dropbox Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020, in Mission, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump carried Florida, the nation’s most prized battleground state, and then he and Democrat Joe Biden focused early Wednesday on the three Northern industrial states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — that could prove crucial in determining who wins the White House.


Trump won Wisconsin by fewer than 23,000 votes in 2016. To win it again, he needs to perform well outside urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison. His record on handling the coronavirus pandemic is at the forefront in many voters’ minds as cases of the virus spike in Wisconsin.

Biden is expected to win urban areas and recent polling suggests Trump is not doing as well as he did in 2016 in GOP-leaning suburbs around Milwaukee.

Those are key areas for successful Republican campaigns in the state. It’s unclear whether Trump can lure enough votes in the more rural areas to offset Biden strongholds in Milwaukee, Madison and Green Bay.


Michigan was long considered a Democratic stronghold in presidential contests. But Trump won it by less than 11,000 votes in 2016 with support from working-class voters and a boost from Hillary Clinton’s poor showing with Black voters in Detroit.

Biden has teamed up with former President Barack Obama to campaign in Flint and Detroit, predominantly Black cities where strong turnout will be essential to putting the state in Biden’s win column.

Trump isn’t ceding Michigan to Biden. In his campaign visits, Trump argued that he has promoted trade policies that have benefited Michigan’s auto industry, while pillorying the state’s Democratic governor over restrictions she has implemented to try to stem the spread of the coronavirus.


Trump won the long-running Democratic state of Pennsylvania in 2016 by a little more than 1 percentage point. Biden has had a slight advantage in most polls, while some suggest Trump remains positioned to capture the state again.

Trump’s hopes of winning boosted after Biden, in a presidential debate, called for phasing out fossil fuels. That created an opportunity for Trump in a state with a robust natural-gas industry.

Biden, who was born in Scranton, claims some favorite-son status in the state and has traveled there a lot during the campaign from his home in nearby Delaware.

Bucks County, once Philadelphia’s most GOP-heavy suburb, has been trending Democratic. Trump lost that county by less than 2 percentage points in 2016 and has seen his standing in the suburbs steadily erode since then.

A nail-biter presidential election

Four years after Trump became the first Republican in a generation to capture that trio of states, they were again positioned to influence the direction of the presidential election. But Biden captured Arizona, another key battleground, which expanded his possible pathways to victory.

By early Wednesday, neither candidate had the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. The tight overall contest reflected a deeply polarized nation struggling to respond to the worst health crisis in more than a century, with millions of lost jobs, and a reckoning on racial injustice.

Trump, in an early morning appearance at the White House, made premature claims of victories in several key states and said he would take the election to the Supreme Court. It was unclear exactly what legal action he might try to pursue.

Several states allow mailed-in votes to be accepted after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked by Tuesday. That includes Pennsylvania, where ballots postmarked by Nov 3 can be accepted if they arrive up to three days after the election.

Trump suggested those ballots shouldn’t be counted. But Biden, briefly appearing in front of supporters in Delaware, urged patience, saying the election “ain’t over until every vote is counted, every ballot is counted.”

“It’s not my place or Donald Trump’s place to declare who’s won this election,” Biden said. “That’s the decision of the American people.”

Early results in several key battleground states were in flux as election officials processed a historically large number of mail-in votes. Democrats typically outperform Republicans in mail voting, while the GOP looks to make up ground in Election Day turnout. That means the early margins between the candidates could be influenced by which type of votes — early or Election Day — were being reported by the states.

Throughout the campaign, Trump cast doubt about the integrity of the election and repeatedly suggested that mail-in ballots — which could be counted after Election Day and, in many states, were expected to lean Democratic — should not be counted. Both campaigns had teams of lawyers at the ready to move into battleground states if there were legal challenges.

Trump kept several states, including Texas, Iowa and Ohio, where Biden had made a strong play in the final stages of the campaign. But Biden won several states where Trump sought to compete, including New Hampshire and Minnesota. But Florida was the biggest, fiercely contested battleground on the map, with both campaigns battling over the 29 Electoral College votes that went to Trump.

The president adopted Florida as his new home state, wooed its Latino community, particularly Cuban-Americans, and held rallies there incessantly. For his part, Biden deployed his top surrogate — President Barack Obama — there twice in the campaign’s closing days and benefitted from a $100 million pledge in the state from Michael Bloomberg.

Control of the Senate was at stake, too: Democrats needed to net three seats if Biden captured the White House to gain control of all of Washington for the first time in a decade. But Republicans maintained several seats that were considered vulnerable, including in Iowa, Texas and Kansas.

The parties traded a pair of seats in other results: Democratic former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper defeated incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner, and in Alabama Republican Tommy Tuberville knocked off Sen. Doug Jones. The House was expected to remain under Democratic control.

As presidential results came in, the nation braced for an outcome that might not be known for days.

Outside the White House, a new anti-scaling fence was erected, and in downtowns from New York to Denver to Minneapolis, workers boarded up businesses lest the vote lead to unrest.

The pandemic — and Trump’s handling of it — was the inescapable focus for 2020.

For Trump, the election stood as a judgment on his four years in office, a term in which he bent Washington to his will, challenged faith in its institutions and changed how America was viewed across the globe. Rarely trying to unite a country divided along lines of race and class, he has often acted as an insurgent against the government he led while undermining the nation’s scientists, bureaucracy and media.

The momentum from early voting carried into Election Day, as an energized electorate produced long lines at polling sites throughout the country. Turnout was higher than in 2016 in numerous counties, including all of Florida, nearly every county in North Carolina and more than 100 counties in both Georgia and Texas. That tally seemed sure to increase as more counties reported their turnout figures.

Voters braved worries of the coronavirus, threats of polling place intimidation and expectations of long lines caused by changes to voting systems, but appeared undeterred as turnout appeared it would easily surpass the 139 million ballots cast four years ago.

No major problems arose on Tuesday, outside the typical glitches of a presidential election: Some polling places opened late, robocalls provided false information to voters in Iowa and Michigan, and machines or software malfunctioned in some counties in the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Texas.

The cybersecurity agency at the Department of Homeland Security said there were no outward signs by midday of any malicious activity.

With the coronavirus now surging anew, voters ranked the pandemic and the economy as top concerns in the race between Trump and Biden, according to AP VoteCast, a national survey of the electorate.

Voters were especially likely to call the public health crisis the nation’s most important issue, with the economy following close behind. Fewer named health care, racism, law enforcement, immigration or climate change

The survey found that Trump’s leadership loomed large in voters’ decision-making. Nearly two-thirds of voters said their vote was about Trump — either for him or against him.

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